Determinants of human development index in West Kalimantan regencies / cities: Panel regression analysis (2023–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52300/jemba.v6i2.27254Keywords:
regional disparity, poverty, gross regional domestic product, panel data regression, West KalimantanAbstract
Regional disparities in human development remain a significant challenge in West Kalimantan despite improvements in provincial development indicators. This study examines the effects of poverty, population growth, population density, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita on the Human Development Index (HDI) across 14 regencies and cities during 2023–2025. Using a quantitative approach, 42 balanced panel observations were analyzed through fixed effects regression using R software. The results indicate that the independent variables are jointly significant, explaining 94.13% of HDI variation. GRDP per capita exhibits a significant negative association with HDI, whereas population growth demonstrates a significant positive association. Conversely, poverty and population density show no statistically significant relationships. These unexpected findings challenge conventional theoretical expectations and may reflect common temporal trends within the limited observation period. This study contributes regional empirical evidence by integrating economic and demographic determinants within a panel regression framework. Policymakers should interpret these findings cautiously when formulating inclusive human development strategies. Future research should employ longer observation periods and alternative model specifications to improve the robustness of the findings.
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