Frits Fahridws Damanik

PERAMALAN PRODUKSI CABE BESAR DAN CABE RAWIT DI KALIMANTAN TENGAH DENGAN METODE ARIMA Forecasting of Chilli and Small Chilli Production in Central Kalimantan Using ARIMA Method

Abstract

Chili is one of the leading commodities of vegetables which has strategic value at national and regional levels.
An unexpected increase in chili prices often results a surge of inflation and economic turmoil. Study and modeling of
chili production are needed as a planning and evaluation material for policy makers. One of the most frequently used
methods in modeling and forecasting time series data is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Avarage (ARIMA). The
results of ARIMA modeling on chili production data found that the data were unstationer conditions of the mean so
that must differenced while the data on the production of small chilli carried out the stages of data transformation and
differencing due to the unstationer of data on variants and the mean. The best ARIMA model that can be applied
based on the smallest AIC and MSE criteria for data on the amount of chili and small chilli production in Central
Kalimantan Province is ARIMA (3,1,0).
Keywords: modeling of chilli, forecasting of chilli, Autoregresive Integrated Moving Avarage, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins.