Determinants of poverty in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: Evidence from panel data analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52300/grow.v11i2.24761Keywords:
poverty, population, unemployment, human development index, income inequalityAbstract
Poverty remains a major development challenge in Indonesia, particularly in regions with diverse socio-economic characteristics such as Central Kalimantan. This study aims to analyze the determinants of poverty across districts and municipalities in Central Kalimantan Province. Using a quantitative approach, this research employs panel data regression analysis covering 14 districts and municipalities over the period 2010–2022. Poverty rate is used as the dependent variable, while total population, open unemployment rate, human development index (HDI), and income distribution inequality (proxied by the Gini ratio) are included as independent variables. The estimation procedure applies panel data techniques with model selection conducted through Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, resulting in the Random Effect Model as the most appropriate specification. The empirical results indicate that population size has a positive and statistically significant effect on poverty levels, while the human development index has a negative and significant impact on poverty reduction. In contrast, unemployment and income inequality are found to have positive but statistically insignificant effects on poverty. Simultaneously, all independent variables jointly influence poverty levels in Central Kalimantan. These findings highlight the importance of improving human development outcomes and managing demographic dynamics as key strategies for poverty alleviation. The study provides empirical evidence that can support regional policymakers in designing more effective poverty reduction policies.
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