Determinan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia di Pasar Asia

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the world's major coffee-producing countries, while Asia has become a strategic destination for Indonesian coffee exports. This study analyzes the determinants of Indonesian coffee exports to Asian markets by considering macroeconomic conditions in importing countries, international coffee prices, and preferential trade policy. The study uses annual panel data covering the value of Indonesian coffee exports to 16 Asian countries from 2016 to 2024. The countries were selected because they consistently imported Indonesian coffee during the observation period. The dependent variable is export value, while the independent variables are foreign exchange reserves of importing countries, exchange rates of importing countries against the rupiah, inflation, international coffee prices, and margin of preference as a proxy for Free Trade Agreement benefits. The data were processed using EViews 13 and estimated through panel data regression. Model selection using the Chow and Hausman tests indicated that the Fixed Effect Model was the most appropriate specification. The results show that foreign exchange reserves, international coffee prices, and trade preference margins have positive and significant effects on Indonesian coffee exports. Exchange rate movements have a negative and significant effect, while inflation is not statistically significant. These findings indicate that export performance in Asian markets is determined not only by price competitiveness, but also by the payment capacity of importing countries and the effective use of preferential trade agreements. Strengthening market access, improving product quality, and managing exchange rate risk are therefore important for enhancing Indonesian coffee exports in Asia.